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The Tri-Cities area housing market had a pretty good year in 2024 despite the fact that sales and prices were readjusted to more normal conditions. Conditions look good for improvements in 2025. 

 Last year’ annual sales settled slightly below the pre-pandemic benchmark, and prices posted their first single-digit increase (4.1%) in four years. There were 7,720 sales, up 0.1% from 2023, and 0.9% below the pre-pandemic 2018 benchmark. 

Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors® chief economist, thinks U.S. sales will increase 9% this year and increase by 13% in 2026. If the local market performs as it has in past years and is concurrent to current early local conditions, sales will outperform Yun’s 2025 outlook. 

 

HOME PRICES 

The median existing-home sales price – the middle of the market – was up 4.1% last year. That’s down from the past four years of double-digit increases. The peak was 2021 when prices were up 17.6%. The historical norm for counties monitored by the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors® (NETAR) is 3.1% per year.  

A typical 2024 sale deflated some of the hot headlines about price drops and doom-and-gloom predictions that high mortgage rates and lack of inventory would force a market decline. Instead, prices slowly increased as sales retreated. Reduced listing prices and concessions were the norm – especially during the last months of the year – but prices didn’t dip below the previous year’s level.  

That typical 2024 sale was $265,000, up $10,450 from the previous year.  

A check of the East Tennessee metro prices shows the Tri-Cities region has the most affordable annual median price.  

 

HOME SALES 

Inventory and affordability are increasing and will be critical market drivers this year just like they were last year. The analysts at the NAR® Research Department have estimated that if mortgage rates settle in the 6% to 6.5% range, over 10,000 locals will return to the market.  

That’s an example of the local estimated organic pent-up demand. Couple it with new residents and you have a picture of an upbeat market for the prime home buying and selling season.  

Inventory began inching upward during the latter half of 2024 when sales were retreating toward the pre-pandemic benchmark. Mortgage rates increased to the 7% range at year’s end, and well over half of local mortgaged property are locked in with a rate below 4%.  

Currently, the region has the best inventory level since 2020 and listing prices in the $300K-$400K sales sweet spot are at or near balanced market conditions. The latest equity report shows over half of the local mortgaged properties are equity rich. It’s the wealth they accumulated during those years of double-digit price increases. For many, it’s a good time to trade-up or scale back. 

The move-up market was last year’s best performer. Sales (3,348) in that $250K-$499,999K price range were up 43.4%. 

Sales in the luxury market (900) were up 11.1%.

Sales in the affordable market (3,013) were up 39%.

The new home market looks to be stronger and as aggressive this year. Builders have reduced the size of their products and continue offering incentives. Developments in the Bristol region and Washington County, Va., are increasing. For the first time in a decade, SW VA counties are attracting more new residents than those leaving. But high death rates continue depressing the population growth numbers.  

The overall state of the local market is for another year of transition, but this year the transition should be on an upward trend path.