June pending home sales: a market of contrasts

Published 10:38 am Monday, July 28, 2025

June’s pending home sales showed a market that is both resilient and constrained. While new contracts that sellers accepted climbed 5.3% from a year ago, they retreated 5.6% from May’s total.

A total of 781 homes went under contract in June, down from 827 in May but up from 742 in June 2024. That increase over last year is a positive sign, especially as broader market dynamics continue to evolve.

The Pending Sales Index for the region stood at 106.3. It’s based on a pre-pandemic benchmark of June 2019 pending sales. An index above 100 signals more activity than that baseline; below 100 suggests a decline. The data, sourced from the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR), offers a forward-looking view of home sales expected to close in the coming months.

June’s data reflects a continuing reshuffling of demand across price tiers:

Affordable market ($180,000–$249,999):
Pending sales dropped 11.9%, highlighting growing affordability stress. Once the go-to tier for first-time and affordability buyers, this segment continues to lose steam as inventory tightens and borrowing costs remain elevated.

Move-up market ($250,000–$499,999):
This tier saw an 8.7% increase in pending sales, signaling steady demand from mid-market buyers. It’s also attracting some buyers priced out of the affordable range.

Luxury market ($500,000+):
Pending sales rose 11%, reinforcing a post-pandemic trend. Buyers in this segment remain less affected by rate sensitivity, and high-end inventory continues to find demand.

Sub-$180K market:
Contracts fell 14.8%, reflecting the ongoing scarcity of entry-level homes and a structural shift in local pricing.

The June numbers confirm a broader reshaping of the Tri-Cities housing landscape. Demand is steadily climbing in the upper price tiers, while the once-dominant affordable sector continues to shrink. Builders and sellers continue their focus on meeting market demand, and the growing affordability gap deepens.

With the second half of 2025 underway, all eyes will remain on how interest rates, buyer sentiment and supply constraints influence the trajectory of pending sales — and whether the move-up and luxury segments can continue carrying the weight of the market.