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After a year of record-breaking weather extremes, new data from the National Weather Service suggests the region should prepare for another summer of heat.

The latest seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is leaning toward above-normal temperatures across much of the Southeast, including Southern Appalachia.

That has experts at East Tennessee State University urging communities to stay alert and informed.

“While the exact outcome is never guaranteed, we see modest signals that this summer will trend warmer than average in our region, and depending on rainfall, that can bring a host of challenges,” said Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s state climatologist and a faculty member in ETSU’s Department of Geosciences.

Joyner directs Tennessee’s Climate Office, which is housed at ETSU and serves as one of just a handful of federally funded pilot sites aimed at helping communities build resilience in the face of increasingly volatile weather.

“It’s also important to remember that summer in the area can bring severe pop-up thunderstorms,” Joyner added. “That’s something everyone needs to monitor, especially for areas prone to flash flooding.”

Summer officially begins next week on June 20.

What to expect

According to the June-July-August 2025 outlook:

– Temperatures are projected to be above average throughout Tennessee and much of the eastern United States.
– Precipitation forecasts are mixed, with East Tennessee, western North Carolina and southwest Virginia leaning slightly above normal.

This comes after a year when East Tennessee communities endured both bitter cold and catastrophic flooding, highlighting the growing need for weather preparedness.

“These patterns aren’t isolated events. They’re part of a broader trend we’ve been watching for years,” Joyner said. “Our role at ETSU is to help interpret the data and equip local leaders with tools and information they can act on.”

Tennessee’s Climate Office works directly with a bevy of partners. That kind of localized expertise is crucial for a region like Appalachia, where national models don’t always capture microclimate conditions.

“Being the flagship institution of Appalachia comes with a responsibility to serve the people of this region,” said Joyner. “Whether it’s tracking extreme weather or helping communities adapt to long-term shifts, we want ETSU to be a trusted source of weather and climate knowledge and support.”