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By Wayne Porter
NETAR President

The local housing market is sending signals that it’s continuing a recalibration and normalization process as it eases into the prime homebuying and selling season. The Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR) April mid-month update shows sales were up 0.3% from last year, and the median sales price is up 5.8%.

Seasonal trends accounted for April’s 88-sales increase from March. The increase was less impressive when compared to last year. They were up by four. Tracking against the 2018 pre-pandemic shows 40 more sales than last month.

The median price leveled out at $275,000, up $5,000 from March and $15,000 better than April last year. The pre-pandemic price was $139,950.

Muted market activity so far this year has driven several 2025 price outlook revisions. Zillow has dropped its outlook for the Johnson City metro market to 0.6%, 0.2% for Kingsport-Bristol and 0.9% for Greeneville.

Fannie Mae is sticking with a 1.7% price increase so far. Wells Fargo is at 3%, and the National Association of Realtors® is at 3% this year, increasing to 4% in 2026.

Don’t be surprised if the local monthly and price trends data from NETAR is higher than the national outlooks. The local market has consistently outperformed the national market for several years.

It’s unlikely that local prices will see a significant decrease anytime soon on the regional level. April’s price trend suggests the region has transitioned to price stability. That’s a healthy sign for a maturing sellers’ market.

Agents and consumers who pay close attention to NETAR’s submarket data have, and should continue seeing, there are opportunities in the mid-tier and emerging submarkets. That’s highlighted by the market performance in markets like Blountville, Bluff City and Rogersville.

The takeaway from a 2020 to 2025 April trend comparison shows the region continues to attract premium buyers who are moving here for lifestyle reasons. It also suggests an ongoing migration pattern that favors premier submarkets.

A lot of what prices do in the second and third quarters depends on mortgage rates, and the outlook for significant changes is being muted by the downgrading of the U.S. credit rating, a persistently stubborn inflation rate, and inflation fears.

So far, there hasn’t been much movement in the median list or sales prices. The discount levels are also consistent after you discount some increased activity in the luxury and top-end market. The percentage of homes that sold after a price discount last month was 38.4%. That is a low point so far this year. The average discount, after adjusting for the luxury market, was $18,000 — also a low so far this year. During negotiations, sellers made concessions in 59% of the sales. The average was $15,713 — another low for the first four months of this year.

The small discounts reflect a market where sellers are being more disciplined.

The bottom line is the local market’s prices are doing better than what some pundits and experts are writing about. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. All real estate is local, and local market conditions don’t necessarily line up with the U.S. patterns or outlooks.

That’s a clear message to local buyers and sellers: Don’t depend too much on what broadcast news readers or headline writers are saying. And if they’re surfing the internet for real estate market information, they need to check and double-check what they find with reliable sources.

One of the best tools in the homebuying and selling toolbox is a competitive market analysis (CMA). A professional Realtor® will use this tool to give his or her clients the most current homebuying information available. What it involves is comparing the target home to what comparable homes in the immediate area are selling for. Comparable gets picky in a good CMA. We are talking about the same-size house, same number of bedrooms, same number of bathrooms, etc. Obviously, there are always some differences, but the basics must line up for an apples-to-apples comparison. One thing a good CMA will show is the sweet spot that closes the deal.