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There will be a burst of late March heat throughout the region, pushing temperature highs to near 80 degrees through the weekend. Dozens of states are experiencing an early “spring leaf-out,” an expression used to describe the new season’s arrival based on when leaves begin to appear. And the area is still reeling from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene six months ago.

What can Tennessee and Appalachia expect this spring?

“Overall for spring, Tennessee, including East Tennessee, is expected to experience close-to-average total rainfall along with typical spring temperature and severe weather extremes,” said Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s state climatologist and a faculty member in the ETSU Department of Geosciences. “Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average.”

How hot will it get?

Temperatures this weekend will top out in the upper 70s, and it’s a similar story for late next week when April begins.

All of Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to experience above-average temperatures, a trend that sweeps through the Deep South and much of the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperature highs by mid-April typically hover in the upper 60s and gradually increase in the weeks beyond.

Joyner has noted that increasing temperatures, observed throughout the world and in Appalachia, can have worrying impacts. The rich biodiversity of the Appalachian Mountains could suffer, and more people — even in the area’s highest elevations — will need access to air conditioning.

“One of the biggest impacts locally will be the unique habitats of the higher elevations that have a climate more similar to southeastern Canada than the rest of the Southeast U.S.,” said William Tollefson, the assistant state climatologist and a lecturer in geosciences at ETSU. “The plants there especially are at risk if temperatures continue to warm, as they are already confined to the highest elevation cool zones.”

Drought conditions

Heavy rains and moderate snow in mid-February helped ease drought conditions for portions of the Volunteer State.

As of late March, much of Northeast Tennessee remains either “abnormally dry” or in a moderate drought, meaning the area needs additional precipitation but hasn’t reached the severe or extreme levels of dry conditions.

Joyner, Assistant State Climatologist Wil Tollefson and Chief Drought Officer Elijah Worley provide weekly insights on drought conditions across the state for the U.S. Drought Monitor, a critical document that can help trigger government-based financial assistance for farmers and businesses.

Spring threats

The old myth still persists: Communities in and around the Appalachian Mountains simply don’t get tornadoes.

The facts say otherwise.

Since 1980, weather officials have recorded more than 200 tornadoes in April and May in East Tennessee. The state, like much of the South, has a high number of tornadoes that occur at night.

“These are often deadlier because people are sleeping or not as aware of nighttime severe weather events,” said Joyner.

Weather-ready

Joyner and his team encourage Tennesseans and Appalachians to be weather-ready:
– Have plans for what to do when severe weather strikes.
– Educate yourself on how weather threats can affect you, from snow to tornadoes.
– Sign up for notifications in your community.
– For members of the ETSU community, make sure you are subscribed to emergency alerts.

“Spring in Appalachia is beautiful, but it can also be volatile,” Joyner said. “Being informed, having a weather alert system in place, and taking storm warnings seriously can make all the difference.”

ETSU, the flagship institution of Appalachia, is home to the climate office for the entire state of Tennessee. Last year, Tennessee’s Climate Office became one of only nine sites nationwide to receive federal pilot funding aimed at helping communities better understand and respond to long-term weather vulnerabilities.