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As the holidays approach, Southern Appalachia takes on a quiet magic, complete with frosted mornings and the chance for surprise snow. 

The cold weather months bring their own rhythm as eyes look to the sky, wondering what the season might bring.

So, what can we expect to see from Old Man Winter as we enter 2025?  

“Wait and See” Winter 

For Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s official climatologist and an associate professor in the Department of Geosciences at East Tennessee State University, winter in Southern Appalachia will likely lean on the milder side.  

“Most models predict a season with near-average precipitation but slightly above-average temperatures, especially for East Tennessee,” Joyner said. “As we move into January and February, there is a chance we’ll see colder snaps. If those cold air masses collide with moisture at just the right time, we could still see some snow events.” 

Southern Appalachia: Winter Wild Card 

The region is notorious for defying easy forecasts. 

When weather systems sweep the country, the mountains complicate seasonal weather outlooks in part because of their unique topography, creating localized variations in temperature and precipitation.  

“These seasonal forecasts are always challenging, and this year is no exception,” he said. “It’s important to remember these predictions cover the whole winter.” 

An Appalachian winter can bring bitter cold, heavy snow, stretches of precipitation and extended drought – all in the same season.  

Outsized Climate Role  

Because ETSU houses Tennessee’s only state climate office, the university plays a major role in climate research. Joyner and his team offered considerable expertise following Hurricane Helene’s devastation, with reports in Reuters and the Washington Post.  

Earlier this year, the climate office became one of only nine such sites in the nation selected for a pilot funding proposal aimed at helping communities better understand and utilize climate data and resources to address long-term extreme weather vulnerabilities.   

“As the state’s official climate office, we take seriously our responsibility to provide reliable, thoughtful forecasts for the region,” Joyner said. “Winter in Southern Appalachia is always a bit unpredictable, but our goal is to help communities prepare for whatever the season may bring – whether it’s a quick snowfall or a stretch of milder weather.”